Kindle DX getting drowned out by Pre, new iPhone

The good news coming out of the Apple conference is that there is no Kindle Killer, yet. The Apple analyst estimate of a January 2010 release of the 10″ touch-screen iBook/MediaPad now seems pretty likely.

The bad news we’ll cover separately (the bookstore in the Iceberg app). There’s something else that’s worth looking at i.e. How the new iPhone and the Palm Pre release are basically drowning out the Kindle DX release.

Where is the Kindle DX Buzz?

Well, there’s not very much Kindle DX Buzz. A combination of powerful factors -

  1. Releasing around the time of Apple’s conference.
  2. Releasing around the time the Pre launches.
  3. Releasing too soon after Kindle 2. 
  4. Leaving too much of a gap between Kindle DX’s announcement and the release date. 
  5. The Price holding back interest.

Is preventing the Kindle DX from getting much attention.

First, here’s a graph showing comparative buzz (courtesy Google Trends) -

The Kindle DX Release is getting drowned out The Kindle DX Release is getting drowned out

Apple is literally taking over all the headlines (courtesy Google Trends) -

Apple taking up all the headlines today Apple taking up all the headlines today

12 out of the top 50 hot topics are Apple conference related. The lack of Kindle DX interest leads to another important question.

Will a lot of Kindle DXes sell in the first 1-2 months?

Let’s see –  

  1. The Kindle DX isn’t exactly getting a fair chance (as we’ve just seen above).  
  2. The $489 price of the Kindle DX is also scaring off a lot of potential buyers.  
  3. There is little pent up demand because a lot of people have bought Kindle 2s in the last 4 months. Also, there’s still more interest in K2 than in KDX –

    Kindle 2 getting more interest than Kindle DX???

    Kindle 2 getting more interest than Kindle DX???

  4. Back  To School season doesn’t start until July and peaks only in August.

That pretty much means that the Kindle DX is going to see a gradual adoption.

This would mean that it’s not until students see other students actually using a Kindle DX that DX sales pick up. For Amazon, the biggest challenge is thus creating enough buzz during the early July to Labor Day shopping season to kick-start sales BEFORE the shopping season is over.

The first Kindle DX and its current release do ensure two things -

  1. By the time of the BIG Holiday Shopping Season there are some Kindle DXes out there, and perhaps even enough to ignite DX sales.
  2. Kindle DX 2 will be able to build on the experience and feedback of the current DX, and likely will be a bigger success.
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